SIBERIA AND RUSSIAN FAR EAST IN THE XXI CENTURY: SCENARIOS OF THE FUTUR
Abstract
The paper presents a study of variants of possible future for Siberia and Russian Far East in the horizon to 2050. The global trends that are likely to determine the situation of Russia and the Siberian macro-region in the long term are considered. It is shown that the demand for natural resources of Siberia and Russian Far East will be determined by the economic development of Asian countries, the processes of urbanization and the growth of urban "middle class".
For determining possible scenarios, a conceptual scenarios method within the framework of foresight technology has been used. Three groups of scenario factors are the basis for the delineation of scenarios: external constant conditions, external variable factors, internal variable factors. Combinations of the factors set the “scenario field” for the future of Siberia and Russian East. Four key scenarios are described: "Broad international cooperation", "Exclusive partnership", "Country optimization", "Territory retention". For each of them a sketch description are presented, including: "the image of the future"(the main features of international cooperation, economic and social development); quantitative estimation of population and GDP dynamics:
• "Broad international cooperation" – the population of Russia will increase by 15.7% from 146.5 million in 2015 to 169.5 million in 2050; Russia's GDP will grow from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 12.8 trillion dollars (3.4 times) in 2050.
• "Exclusive partnership" – the population of Russia will increase by 8.1% from 146.5 million in 2015 to 158.4 million in 2050; Russia's GDP will grow from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 10.1 trillion dollars (2.7 times) in 2050.
• "Optimization of the country" - the population of Russia will decrease by 0.1% from 146.5 million in 2015 to 146.4 million in 2050; Russia's GDP will grow from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 7.4 trillion dollars (2.0 times) in 2050.
• "Retention of territory" - the population of Russia will decrease by 11.9% from 146.5 million in 2015 to 129.1 million; Russia's GDP will grow from 3.8 trillion dollars (PPP) in 2015 to 6.0 trillion dollars (1.6 times) in 2050.