THE CURRENT WARMING AND SHIFTING OF ICE EVENTS ON THE SIBERIAN RIVERS
Vladimir Myglan, Eugene Vaganov
Abstract
The study represents the results of the long-term rows analysis of watching ice-breaking and freezing on Siberian rivers (Ob, Irtysh, Enisey, Angara, etc.). There are obtained characteristics of ice events dates with spring and autumn temperatures. On the base of tree-ring chronologies the relation between the indirect indicator of summer temperatures changing (tree growth) and the period of open water was revealed.
Two last centuries are characterized by the steady trend of ice-breaking moments shift towards earlier dates and of freezing-towards later ones. So the long-term rows of ice events (especially the period of open water) is evidence of the warming over the considerable territory of the Southern Siberia, that confirms the general tendency of warming in temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere.
There was found out a different directed trend in ice events and the long temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies after the 1950s. As the ice events is the sequent of physical processes, the cause of the divergence is necessary to be looked for in the biological reaction of trees for the climate changing or other active biological factors of the environment.
The revealed close coupling between the ice events and the temperature of some months efforts the opportunity to use the statistical characteristic for the forecast of ice-events dynamics on Siberian rivers especially for the warming impacts.
Two last centuries are characterized by the steady trend of ice-breaking moments shift towards earlier dates and of freezing-towards later ones. So the long-term rows of ice events (especially the period of open water) is evidence of the warming over the considerable territory of the Southern Siberia, that confirms the general tendency of warming in temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere.
There was found out a different directed trend in ice events and the long temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies after the 1950s. As the ice events is the sequent of physical processes, the cause of the divergence is necessary to be looked for in the biological reaction of trees for the climate changing or other active biological factors of the environment.
The revealed close coupling between the ice events and the temperature of some months efforts the opportunity to use the statistical characteristic for the forecast of ice-events dynamics on Siberian rivers especially for the warming impacts.